Epistemologists – РИСК-АКАДЕМИЯ – АНО ДПО ИСАР

Maestro Bogomolny. Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability… | by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | INCERTO | Nov, 2020

riskacademy — Wed, 18 Nov 2020 15:14:02 +0000

Social media brings out the best and the worst in people. He was rigorous yet open-minded, allowing people like me (who did some mathematical economics and finance) to cheat with inequalities by using the various canned methods for finding minima and maxima. He even tolerated computerized mathematics, provided of course there was some rigor in the process. I initially knew nothing about him but could observe rare attributes: an extraordinary amount of patience and a remarkable sense of humor. One summer, as he was in Israel, I informed him that I was vacationing in Lebanon. His answer: “Walking distance”. He always had a short comment that makes you smile, not laugh, which is a social art.

Alexander B. created a vibrant community around his Twitter account. He would pose a question, collect answers and patiently explain to people where they were wrong.

I, for myself, started almost every day with a puzzle, with the excitement of unpredictability, as it took from 5 minutes to 4 hours to complete –and it was usually impossible to tell from the outset. For a couple of years, it was the first thing I looked at with the morning coffee. There was some mild competition, mild enough to be entertaining but not too intense to resemble an academic rat race. Once someone got a proof, we had to look for another approach so…

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Religion, Violence, Tolerance & Progress: Nothing to do with Theology | by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | INCERTO | Oct, 2020

riskacademy — Wed, 21 Oct 2020 15:43:09 +0000

1) Religions create highly differentiated belief clusters and mentalities that have little to do with their theologies, 2) Heresies are separatist movements, often ethnic, and have little to do with religious doctrine.

If you think you will change the behavior of religious people by modifying the theologies, you are committing the standard Weberian fallacy. It is not about the religion; it is about clusters of people who happen to have that religion and their culture.

The collective historical attitudes of Catholics aren’t necessarily from the theologies of Catholicism, those of Sunni Muslims not from the theology of Sunni Islam — it just happens that religion either creates a distinct polarized group and people start imitating one another within that group. My point here is that the Weberian narrative built on the notion that religious transformations (say, as with the reformation) determine attitude and culture fails historical logic. And trying to change the theologies and doctrines makes absolutely no sense. You need to change the mentalities, and cultural norms — if you can.

Saint Bartholomew’s day’s massacre — Francois Dubois

Max Weber who promoted the idea of the West driven by the “Protestant work ethics”.

The robust alternative, that people imitate the (contagious) mores of those of their…

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‘Black Swan’ Investor Nassim Taleb on Covid Misconceptions, Fed Policy, Inflation

riskacademy — Sun, 27 Sep 2020 08:33:40 +0000

For some reason I did not have a chance to discuss overactive rapid TESTING as the ultimate solution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePmSa-n7kBA

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It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s Ruler

riskacademy — Sat, 27 Jun 2020 20:00:15 +0000

It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s Ruler #taleb, #riskvideo, #blackswan

It is a 10 sigma event or are you wrong about the world? Wittgenstein’s Ruler

When someone tells you it was a 10 sigma event, meaning it is 10 standard deviations and it is Gaussian; unless the information came from God, you can reject…

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