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Небольшой текст про качество прогнозирования в условиях неопределенности в нефтяной отрасли. Даже там, где это core business, есть проблемы. Что уж говорить про других…
The oil & gas industry invests significant resources on forecasting future productions. These forecasts are essential ingredients of the cash flows and value estimates that form the basis for investment decisions such as new developments, re-developments, drilling and maintenance schedules, etc. The time, money, and effort spent on developing these forecasts are significant and commensurate with their importance, as the quality of the decisions based on these forecasts can be no better than the quality of the forecasts themselves.
Historically, significant production shortfalls relative to forecasts have been the rule rather than the exception. Although the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate is requesting probabilistic production forecasts from the operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), it has been demonstrated that the degree of optimism in these probabilistic forecasts is no less than that observed when operators provide deterministic forecasts. Furthermore, the NCS forecasts are also heavily impacted by the overconfidence bias as only about 30% of the actual production outcomes fall within the forecasted 80% interval. Moreover, the NCS production shortfall relative to forecasts (optimism) is as poor now as it was 22 years ago with no sign of improvements despite the significant increase in the operators’ uncertainty modeling competence and sophistication over the past two decades.
