Astrology, the lottery and predicting the next big risk

How can those involved with the LGPS maximise the chances of predicting, and planning for, the next cyber-attack or pandemic-style event?

What links British Airways, LinkedIn, the NHS and Travelex? You guessed it, cyber-attacks. I would bet that cyber risk appeared on most, if not all, risk registers because it is a headline-hitting, movie-inspiring occurrence. Imagining being the victim of a cyber-attack is the only reason I don’t lose my mind when resetting a forgotten password for the umpteenth time.

What I wouldn’t bet on, is that pandemic risk appeared on a lot of risk registers before 2020, and yet there were hints. Bill Gates was talking about the lack of preparedness for epidemics in 2015, reportedly warning presidential candidates in 2016, and by 2018 he was predicting a pandemic.

No one wants to hit the headlines for a cyber-attack, or to be on the back foot when a big risk hits. Given the role of the LGPS in managing assets and data, employing people and providing services to members, we need processes to predict and plan for risks before they occur.

For some risks, such as investment and funding risks, we have sophisticated approaches, but how do we make sure we…