He also expects both countries’ leaders to come under increasing pressure domestically – Donald Trump from the Russia investigation and Xi Jinping from a slowdown in the Chinese economy – resulting in more assertive foreign policy positions.
Over the next two years, the Trump administration “may double down on its foreign and security policy strategy toward China in order to demonstrate the toughness of US presidential resolve in asserting and defending US national security”, Mr Rudd says.
At the same time, he expects “a more nationalist China” to emerge.
“Saber rattling against Taiwan may well intensify,” he says. “But, more critically in terms of the stability of the US-China relationship, freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea are likely to become more confrontational. The accumulated risks, therefore, of collision between aircraft or naval craft are also likely to become greater. Crisis management between Beijing and Washington may be tested to the limits.”
Unsettling outlook
This unsettling outlook for power relations in 2019 follows China’s move away from market-based economic reforms and its more forceful foreign policy settings over the past few…
