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Step 2. Identify causes and consequence scenarios
Causes and consequences for the bow-tie diagram are normally derived from the regulations as well as through consultation with risk owners and subject matter experts.
Common consequence scenarios for compliance risks (just a quick example, there is more) include:
| Risk area | Examples of consequence scenarios |
| Licensed activities and subsoil use |
|
| Environmental management (ecology) |
|
| Sanctions compliance |
|
| Anti-monopoly compliance |
|
| Tax compliance |
|
| Fire supervision, emergency protection |
|
| Labor and industrial safety |
|
| Covenant compliance |
|
| Economic and information security, state secret |
|
| Land and property relations |
|
| Construction and reconstruction of hazardous facilities |
|
| Physical security of production facilities and vehicles |
|
An example for a bow-tie for a typical compliance risk is presented below:
Where, V – means several events can occur at the same time, and XOR means the variability of either one event or the other. For example, fines can be either for three days of water pollution (small), or for a year (moderate) or three years (large), and criminal prosecution and termination of business can occur simultaneously.
To be continued…
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