While I often question USDA’s Cattle on Feed reports, I believe the trend of a declining feedlot inventory as reflected in the last several reports are accurate. We know the direction of the supply following the previous two years of herd liquidation and the slaughter data is confirmation. It does not take a detailed review of heifer slaughter to know that a large share of those feedlot inventories has been heifers – heifers that were not held as replacements in the fall of 2022. We knew they would not be replacements – not after significant herd liquidation that year!
Heifer slaughter has fallen below a year earlier since mid-May and year-to-date, is down 2% from a year earlier. Two important points – first, for all of 2022 heifer slaughter was the highest since 2003 and, second, for the period of September 23 through the end of the year 2022, this was the highest number of heifers slaughtered since 2002. I am assuming this year’s figure will continue to fall well below the 2022 number. Steer slaughter year-to-date is down 5% from a year earlier and the lowest in my database which goes back to 1989. Consequently, cattle supplies will tighten even further as…
