While snapback may overlap with existing US sanctions, it would reaffirm the international legitimacy of coordinated multilateral pressure on Iran, particularly for risk-sensitive governments and financial institutions in Europe, Asia, and beyond. Iran’s economy, already under severe strain, remains vulnerable. Inflation is above 40 percent, the currency continues to weaken, and oil exports, its principal revenue stream, have struggled to return to pre-2018 levels despite a recent recovery.
Reinstated UN sanctions would include renewed restrictions on arms transfers, shipping, finance, and international transactions. Although China may continue importing discounted Iranian oil, other states are likely to reduce or suspend trade due to legal and reputational risks.
Economic pressure could extend beyond trade. Capital flight, reduced investor confidence, and a potential devaluation of the rial by between 20 and 30 percent could follow. Iran’s ability to finance essential imports, including food and medicine, could weaken.
These economic shocks could translate into political pressure. Iran’s 2022-2023 protest movements, driven by a combination of economic hardship and political…
