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John Hollmann: This is a question for project risk analysts. What if cost growth and schedule slip are not correlated? I ask because 4 separate studies of actual data that I have done with 3 independent data sets, from 3 countries, and 3 industry types had this finding. Actually, the correlation was negative for one (i.e., schedule slips and cost underruns on average). What are the likely causes? What does this mean for how one does risk quantification (if "realistic" model results are a goal)? What does this mean to the claims point of view (delay = added cost)? For those who are curious, it is easy to examine such scatter in a joint confidence level chart (JCL) for past integrated risk analyses (most software like @Risk gives you the option to chart cost and schedule outcomes against each other). I have my hypotheses, but I would like to hear other thoughts.
