Lame excuses for not quantifying uncertainty RISK-ACADEMY Blog

Join Executive Director Sam Savage and Alex Sidorenko, CEO of Risk Academy and winner of multiple risk management awards, for an interactive livestream on risk.

Tuesday August 16, 10:15 AM PDT

In this livestream, Sam and Alex will challenge some of the most common risk management excuses as documented in the Savage and Hubbard Top Ten List of Lame Excuses for Not Quantifying Uncertainty. This week they will tackle excuse #5: “We don’t need to quantify uncertainty, we just need better forecasts.”

Tune in every Tuesday at 10:15 AM PDT for the next several excuses, and watch previous livestreams here on the Risk Academy YouTube channel.

Free Webinar: How Utilities Get the Most Bang for Their Buck in Reducing Risk

Hosted by Lumina Decision Systems, Wednesday, August 17, 11:00 AM PDT

Register For Free

Join Max Henrion, PhD, CEO of Lumina Decision Systems, and Sam Savage, PhD, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, for a free webinar where they will explain the Risk Spend Efficiency (RSE) framework, how California utilities have been using it, and illustrate RSE with ANAGRAM (Analytica for Natural Gas Risk Analysis and Management).

Some California utilities have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, including the 2010 San Bruno gas pipeline explosion that killed 8 people, the 2018 Camp Fire that destroyed the town of Paradise and killed 85, and the 2021 Dominion Pipeline ransomware cyberattack that cut gasoline to the US Northeast. The California Public Utilities Commission requires utilities to quantify risks and use RSE to prioritize mitigations based on how much risk they reduce per dollar invested. In this webinar you will see how California utilities use this framework.

The California Public Utilities Commission requires utilities to quantify risks and use risk-spend efficiency (RSE) to prioritize mitigations based on how much risk they reduce per dollar invested. In this webinar you will see how California utilities use this framework and illustrate the approach with ANAGRAM.

Max and Sam both advise the California Public Utility Commission on the Risk Decision Framework used by California electric and gas utilities.

Join Dr. Sam Savage and other top risk management and decision-making experts for Risk Awareness Week 2022, an online conference where you can learn global best practices in risk-based decision making.

The conference offers over 40 workshops, including the following from ProbabilityManagement.org team members and volunteers:

Integrated Decision Management Instead of Risk Management – Doug Hubbard, October 17 2022, 2:00 AM PDT

Moving From Single Point Scenarios to Ranges and Distributions – Sam Savage, October 17 2022, 4:00 AM PDT

Build it Once and Reuse it Everywhere… The Uncertainty Power Plant – Justin Schell, October 19 2022, 5:00 AM PDT

The Metalog Distributions: Future of Risk Management Quantification – Tom Keelin, October 19 2022, 6:00 AM PDT

Practical Guide to Measuring Probability of Achieving Objectives – Sam Savage, October 19 2022, 7:00 AM PDT

These and other experts will share their practical case studies, show model demonstrations, run Monte Carlo simulations, and apply decision quality frameworks. Each presentation is specifically tailored to appeal to both risk managers and decision makers alike.

New Dates Added: Welcome to the Chance Age Webinars

Learn how to jump start your chance-informed decision making in our two-part webinar series on Chancification. We have recently added new dates on September 28 and 29.

Register Now

As a reminder, webinar attendees also receive a free copy of ChanceCalc, a free Kindle copy of Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages (valid only for U.S.-based email addresses), and $200 off the Enterprise SIPmath Tools. In addition, attendees may attend the SIPply Chain Forum, a monthly web gathering to discuss the latest developments in SIP Library generation. Stay tuned for information on the next monthly gathering.

Chancification Available in E-Book and Paperback

Dr. Sam Savage’s new book, Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages, is now available in paperback. Chancification shows how to solve the problems of dealing with uncertainty exposed by Dr. Savage’s earlier book, The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012). John Wiley & Sons has generously offered a 30% discount on the paperback edition of The Flaw of Averages. Use discount code BPFS2 (be sure to click Apply) here.

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