Air Force (70.1% win probability per ESPN FPI)
The Air Force Falcons will look to improve upon their 2-4 start when they hit the road to take on UNLV under a set of Friday nigh lights. Neither program has hit full stride this season and both teams are still seeking their first win in conference play. Air Force opened this week as a 13-point favorite and most lines have shifted to a 10 or 11-point spread in the Falcons favor. This shift is most likely due to the loss of Air Force’s most dynamic quarterback, Donald Hammond III, who is out with an ankle injury. Another story line likely not doing the Falcon spread any better is that Troy Calhoun’s team has yet to win on the road this season (0-3) while both of the Rebels’ victories have come at home (2-1). That said (ironically, I hate this saying), the Falcons have certainly experienced a fair share of challenging games on the road this season (at FAU, Utah State, and SDSU) and UNLV will certainly be their easiest road test so far. The quarterback story is a slight cause for concern but I still like Air Force by two scores with a likely 10-point victory. If you can find a -10 spread, I say “take it.” What about the over/under you…
