Наши популярные онлайн курсы
What was the last risk management innovation that you remember? 5×5 heatmap instead of 3×3? Just kidding. Risk management has been pretty stagnant in the last 30 years… that is until now…
Sam Savage from probabilitymanagement.org is bringing us a new ground-breaking approach called ‘Chancification’. This innovative concept is akin to electrification, but instead of replacing fossil fuel technologies with electricity, Chancification replaces traditional number-based calculations, budgets, business plans and forecasts with probability distributions.
It’s a step towards wiring organizations for probability, allowing decision makers to clearly see and understand the effect uncertainty has on important business decisions, metrics and KPIs.
Chancification allows decision makers with even basic understanding of math to take full advantage of probability based decision making. Much like using electricity without knowing how to generate it, Chancification enables organizations to harness the power of probability without being experts in its generation. Learn more in Sam Savage’s 2022 book called Chancification. If you know me or what I do in risk management, I can assure you this is the greatest risk management innovation I have seen in my professional risk management career. In fact, it is so good, the organisation where I work uses the techniques and tools every day. Moving from single scenario business plans to probabilistic business plans and confidence intervals is the best thing to happen to our profession. I strongly believe every risk manager on the planet should be implementing this. If my word is not enough to spark your curiosity, let me explain what Chancification is.
Imagine a business plan. You forecast sales – X, which are based on volume Y and price Z. Both Y and Z are actually uncertain and have to be estimated. Often the management selects a single scenario to estimate both, so optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are excluded from future analysis. This often leads to sales underestimation or overestimation, wrong decisions and conclusions because of flaw of averages, more on that in Sam’s book. In Chancification world, we can keep Y and Z as ranges or probability distributions, the width of the range representing the uncertainty and risks that may affect volume and prices. The innovation part comes in the fact that we can now do arithmetic with probability distributions. It used to be complex and error prone, now, thanks to SIPmath standard for storing distributions, we can add, multiple, divide and do all sorts of manipulations with not just single values but with whole distributions. And, more importantly, we can do that in native excel with no need for special software. This means anyone in the organisation, even outside the risk management team, can manipulate and use risk models.
I am not sure I am doing a good enough job of explaining this. It is so revolutionary, that our risk management profession will never be the same.
To facilitate this transition, several free resources are available. The SIPmath Network, for example, is an open protocol allowing for the communication of uncertainties in different standards. ChanceCalc, a free Excel add-in, lets users insert uncertainties into Excel, instantly estimating chances, simulated averages, and percentiles. Once the probability distributions are inserted into excel models, the models become stochastic and no further software is needed to manipulate them. Furthermore, the SIPmath Modeler Tools, along with open-source applications in R and Python, empower organizations to generate their own SIP Libraries. Grab your 5% RAW2023 discount using code 𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗨𝗝𝗗𝗔. https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/montecarlo
The SIPmath™ 3.0 Standard, developed by Sam Savage, is a core component of this technological stack. It represents uncertainties as auditable data arrays called SIPs, which contain either Monte Carlo trials or cross-platform functions. This standard is complemented by Doug Hubbard’s HDR Random Number Generator and Tom Keelin’s Metalog Distributions, enhancing the flexibility and applicability of probabilistic models.
Give it a try and watch Sam talk about the revolution at past RAW https://2023.riskawarenessweek.com/speakers/sam-savage/
RISK-ACADEMY offers online courses
+
Informed Risk Taking
Learn 15 practical steps on integrating risk management into decision making, business processes, organizational culture and other activities!
$149,99$49,99
+
Advanced Risk Governance
This course gives guidance, motivation, critical information, and practical case studies to move beyond traditional risk governance, helping ensure risk management is not a stand-alone process but a change driver for business.
$795
