This is the first of what I expect will be a pair of blog posts. The second will be on “What is the level of risk? (No “a”)”
This one talks about a single source of risk, while the second will be about the big picture of all the sources of risk relevant to a decision: a portfolio of risks.
So, what is the level of a risk?
I will start with what might appear at first glance to be a simple situation.
You are about to drive from your home the 30 miles to the airport.
You might have an accident.
The consequences (impacts or effects) of a car accident range from:
- The death of your entire family, to
- Your death but the survival of the rest of the family, to
- Severe injuries that leave you in hospital for months with a coma, to
- Severe injuries that leave you paralyzed from the waist down, to
- Severe injuries that result in a month’s hospitalization but eventual full recovery, to
- Your survival but the death of others, to
- The total loss of your car and the end of your trip as you have to stay and answer questions from the police, to
- Missing your flight, to
- A short delay as you exchange information with others in the accident before resuming your trip and making your flight, to
- A tap on your bumpers and after checking for damage (there is none) you continue without problems…
… and many points in between.
In…
