Informing disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses

Post-disaster recovery modeling framework

The proposed methodology combines five distinct modules to evaluate the probabilistic post-disaster recovery trajectory of school infrastructure. The interdependence of education and utility lifelines (e.g., water and power networks) is not discussed here because (1) past events have shown that utility networks are quickly fixed following disasters³⁸; (2) due to climate conditions and architecture (i.e., large windows), most schools in tropical countries are not significantly dependent on the power supply; and (3) some of these schools in tropical countries rely mainly on local wells, not municipal water networks³⁹. Interested readers are referred to other studies⁴⁰ for more information on simulating the interdependence of buildings and utility lifelines.

The first module of the proposed framework entails a hazard analysis to simulate the local hazard intensity measures (e.g., earthquake-induced ground shaking, flood-induced water depth, typhoon-induced wind speeds) at each school-building location for a particular hazard scenario (i.e., a given event). The hazard analysis adequately accounts for the spatial distribution of the intensities throughout…