Navy (4.3% win probability per ESPN FPI)
Navy is not only 2-7 on the year, but they are also 2-7 against the spread. That makes Navy a tough pick any week when it comes to choosing them to cover. What makes it even more challenging this week is the fact that Navy has to travel to Orlando to take on the 12th ranked UCF Knights. Saturday’s game marks the fourth straight time the Midshipmen are double-digit underdogs in a row. Navy has one cover in that four game span when they covered the 22.5 point spread against third-ranked Notre Dame by .5 a point. Against my better judgment I think Navy manages to cover the 23.5 spread this weekend because of UCF’s poor defense. While Navy will struggle to stop UCF while on defense, I do think they will manage to have some offensive success and an efficient fourth quarter will make the final score closer than expected. When it comes to points, I expect a lot of them and so does Vegas with its 63 total points as the O/U. Why not think Navy manages to score some TDs along the way?
Navy (+23.5) – Moderate Risk
Over (63) – Moderate Risk
Pick – UCF 45 Navy 24
Air Force (81.2% win probability per ESPN FPI)
Air Force suffered a heartbreaking loss last…