The U.S. economy, though clearly facing a growing risk of recession, continues to exhibit remarkable strengths, particularly in the labor market, as illustrated by continued job creation and another drop in the unemployment rate in the September 2022 jobs report.
Yet, right now that strength is a curse more than a blessing. With every sign of strength, it will get harder to rein in persistent and broad-based inflation without the Fed raising rates to levels that make a recession inevitable. And the risk is not linear: Though inflation is high today, expectations of…
