The recent summits and upcoming rounds of diplomatic activity are unlikely to change the long-term scenarios. While Trump remains engaged in any conflict resolution, there is a chance of a peace settlement because only the US has the military and economic power to swing the balance.
Having failed in his strategic goal to establish a neutral Ukraine with a malleable client leader in power, Putin may now also recognize the impossibility of militarily seizing the four Russian-claimed Ukrainian regions. But Ukrainian forces cannot realistically displace the Russian occupation back to the 1991 or even 2014 lines of control. Trump’s initiatives may encourage Putin to adapt his objectives for the coming years, commit to a peace process while maintaining low-level hybrid hostilities with Ukraine and the EU, and benefit from the likely rapid reduction in US sanctions. Russian technocrats and oligarchs will likely encourage Putin to work toward such a strategy. This may result in a theoretically temporary but effectively permanent partition of Ukraine.
An alternative scenario sees Trump becoming impatient with slow progress and threatening increased sanctions against Moscow and/or…
