Air Force (53.2% win probability per ESPN FPI)
Another coin flip type game among service academy football this Saturday when the Air Force Falcons travel to Laramie, WY to take on the Wyoming Cowboys in their must-need win to continue fighting for bowl eligibility. The Falcons have covered five of their last six games and have only failed to cover as underdogs one time this season – a loss on the road against a solid Utah State team. The Cowboys have only covered at home one time this season and are 2-3 ATS as favorites in 2018. All signs point to a Falcon cover and a possible upset (at least in the eyes of Vegas, while ESPN FPI favors Air Force).
The O/U is too low for my liking as it is the lowest Wyoming closing O/U on the season and Air Force’s second (only game that closed with a lower O/U was at 41.5 against Army). I don’t suspect this game to be a high scoring game, but I do think both teams contribute their part to push the total over 42.
Air Force (+2.5) – Moderate Risk
Over (42) – Minor Risk
“Upset” Pick – Air Force 28 Wyoming 24
Navy (57.2% win probability per ESPN FPI)
The Navy Midshipmen (2-8) find themselves as favorites for the first time since hitting the road to…
